The Victorian government marked this year's NAPLAN results with a press release headlined "Victoria Tops The Class Again", and on its own numbers it has a case. On the government's account, a record number of Victorian students reached the highest proficiency levels, the state ranked first or second in 16 of 20 NAPLAN measures, and it recorded the lowest national rate of students needing additional support.
It pointed to two specific gains. In Year 9 numeracy, 15.2 per cent of Victorian students were "exceeding", up on 2025. In Year 9 writing, more than 25 per cent reached the highest level, also up on last year.
"These results are outstanding – and they're proof Victoria is the Education State leading the nation," said Premier Ben Carroll. Deputy Premier and Minister for Education Gabrielle Williams framed it as a return on spending: "This is what happens when you invest in education. Great teachers, modern classrooms and real support for every student."
The spending is not small. The release cites a $44 billion education package, alongside $26.4 million directed at literacy through the phonics check and $10.4 million for the numeracy check. It also credits the Victorian Reading Position, which puts 25 minutes of explicit, systematic, synthetic phonics into every public primary school day from Prep to Year 2.
All of which is worth setting beside what the national data actually shows, because the two are answering different questions.
Writing in The Conversation the day before the Victorian release, Sally Larsen, a senior lecturer in education at the University of New England, put it plainly: "None of the results are really any better or worse than those recorded since the NAPLAN scale was reset in 2023." On the testing authority's own definition, she notes, the differences in averages between 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 are "negligible in size".
The national movements bear that out. Year 3 numeracy fell 4.7 scale points, the one result authorities flagged as concerning. Year 5 and Year 7 numeracy rose 6.1 and 9.5 points. Year 5 reading dropped 8.4 points, and other year levels shifted within five points either way. On a scale running from 1 to 1,000, none of that is dramatic.
The more stubborn number is the one that has not shifted at all: roughly 30 per cent of students nationally sit in the bottom two proficiency bands, "needs additional support" and "developing", as they have in previous years.
These findings do not contradict the government's. Victoria's claim is a ranking against the other states and territories, and a jurisdiction can sit first or second on most measures while the national averages stay flat — being ahead of the pack is not the same as the pack moving forward. Larsen's argument is about change over time, not about who is in front.
The full results are published for Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 nationally, by state and territory and by demographic group, which is where the detail behind both readings sits. For Victorian parents the practical takeaway is narrower than either headline: the state is doing comparatively well, the tests are not showing much movement anywhere, and about a third of students across the country are still in the bands the system says need help.
